热帖 - 雪球 ( ) • 2024-05-06 10:07

伯克希尔年会如期而至,笔者对三个数字印象深刻:1800亿美元、800家公司和1天。

分别代表:

1. 巴菲特预计伯克希尔创纪录的1890亿美元现金储备将继续增长。

近几年美国股市持续走高,在公开市场上很难有很好的机会,这也导致今年股票回购接近25亿美元。即使这样也看好美元升值,从日本市场发行债券来购买日本5大商社股票(伊藤忠商事、丸红、三菱、三井和住友),目前伯克希尔对这5家公司的投资成本共计1.6万亿日元,5家公司的2023年末市值为2.9万亿日元。随着近年来日元汇率走低,伯克希尔的年终未实现美元收益为61%,达80亿美元。

2. 伯克希尔2023年缴纳了超过 50 亿美元的联邦税。 巴菲特表示如果其他 800 家公司也做了同样的事情,那么美国其他任何人都不需要支付一毛钱。(Berkshire paid over $5 billion in federal taxes last year, Buffett said. “And if 800 other companies had done the same thing, no other person in the United states would have had to pay a dime” )

巴菲特在回答股东出售苹果股票提问时表示,出售公司是为了获得可观收益后的税收原因。他还暗示,此次出售可能与他希望避免因美国财政赤字膨胀而提高税率,进而增加税费有关。(the sale was for tax reasons following sizable gains. He also implied the sale could be tied to him wanting to avoid a higher tax bill down the road if rates go higher to fund a ballooning U.S. fiscal deficit.)

3. 一个男孩问沃伦·巴菲特,如果再和查理·芒格在一起,他会做什么?( what he would do if he had another day with Charlie Munger)

巴菲特说:“我们总是对自己所做的事情感到满意。他喜欢学习,喜欢各种各样的事情。所以,他比我更广泛。而且我们玩得很开心, 我们一起打高尔夫球和网球。我们在失败的事情上也获得了同样多的乐趣,甚至在某种程度上甚至更多,因为那时我们真的必须努力工作,努力摆脱困境。从某种意义上说,有更多的乐趣是有你的合作伙伴一起从散兵坑里挖出一条路来。”

Buffet said, "We always lived in a way where we were happy with what we were doing. He liked learning, and he liked a wide variety of things. So, he was much broader than I was. And we had a lot of fun together; we played golf and tennis. We did everything together. He further added, "We had as much fun, perhaps even more to some extent with things that failed because then we really had to work and work our way out of them. In a sense, there is more fun in having that's your partner and digging your way out of a foxhole."

这无疑是最温馨的一幕,笔者之前发表了网页链接{伯克希尔2024年会(三):资本盛宴--伍德斯托克音乐节(Woodstock for Capitalism)},就说过有好多中小学学生参加年会,这些人往往往是跟随父母来到会场,处处显露出童真。巴菲特的回答也让人动容,和自己最好的伙伴在一起,就是享受一下生活的乐趣,打打桥牌、喝可乐等普通生活。最后巴菲特总结说一起走过艰难时刻获得了更多欢乐,现在伯克希尔有坚固的城墙、宽广的护城河,但是在90年代初深陷所罗门违规购买债券丑闻,巴菲特就任所罗门兄弟董事长,那时稍有不慎,一世英名就会毁于一旦,巴菲特更珍视和芒格共担风雨,形象的比喻称一起走过硝烟,和我们经常说的一起扛过枪有异曲同工之效。

会议最后, 全场雷鸣的掌声,巴菲特欢迎大家明年再来,幽默的说如果他有明年……

朋友发自年会现场,谢谢MYC。