Its Power Grid Already Frail, Ukraine Fears Horrid Winter

乌克兰夏季就停电 冬季更不乐观

Skyscrapers are without electricity up to 12 hours a day. Neighborhoods are filled with the roar of gas generators installed by cafes and restaurants. And at night, streets are plunged into darkness for lack of lighting.

摩天大楼一天停电达12小时。街坊充满了咖啡馆和餐厅安装的燃油发电机咆哮声。而在夜里，街道因缺乏照明陷入黑暗。

That is the new reality in Ukraine, where the approach of summer has offered no respite for the country’s power grid, but has instead brought a return to the kind of energy crisis experienced during its first winter at war, a year and a half ago.

这是乌克兰的新现实，夏季来临没有为该国电网提供喘息，反而带来战时第一个冬季期间经历过的那种能源危机，那是一年半前。

Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s power plants and substations have left the country’s energy infrastructure severely hobbled. To make matters worse, two nuclear power plant units are scheduled for repairs this week, and summer temperatures are expected to prompt people to turn on their air conditioners.

俄罗斯的飞弹和无人机攻击乌克兰的发电厂和变电所，让该国能源基础设施陷入严重困境。更糟糕的是，两个核电厂机组定于这周维修，而夏季气温预计将促使人们打开空调。

As a result, Ukrainian authorities have ordered nationwide rolling blackouts for this week, a more aggressive measure than the regional and irregular power cuts that parts of the country had been experiencing earlier this spring.

因此，乌克兰当局已下令这周实施全国性分区轮流供电，比起该国部分地区今春稍早就一直经历的区域性和不规则停电，这是更激烈的措施。

While power shortages in the summer can leave people uncomfortably hot in dark apartments, they pose a more deadly risk in the winter.

虽然夏季缺电会让人们在黑暗的公寓热得不舒服，冬季缺电造成更致命的危险。

And already, Ukraine’s widespread blackouts have raised concerns about what will happen when the frigid weather arrives, when the use of heating devices increases the load on the energy system. Experts have warned that power plants have suffered too much damage to be repaired before subzero temperatures set in, around December, which could plunge many people into dangerously cold living conditions.

乌克兰普遍停电，让人忧心一旦严寒天气到来，使用供暖设备增加能源系统负载时，会发生何事。专家已经警告，发电厂蒙受太多损害，无法在12月左右气温降至零下前修复，可能让许多人陷入危险的寒冷生活条件。

“The situation is even worst than it was last year,” Olena Lapenko, an energy security expert at DiXi Group, a Ukrainian think tank, said Monday, referring to the winter of 2022-23 during which Russia pummeled Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

乌克兰智库DiXi Group的能源安全专家欧莲娜．拉彭科周一表示，「情况甚至比去年更糟」，指的是2022至23年冬季期间，俄罗斯接连打击乌克兰能源基础设施。

Lapenko estimated that even with moderate temperatures and no new Russian attacks on the power grid, Ukraine would be short 1.3 gigawatts during peak consumption hours this summer. That represents about 10% of the energy consumption during peak hours.

拉彭科估计，即使气温适中，而且俄罗斯没有再攻击电网，在今年夏季尖峰耗电时段，乌克兰仍将短缺1.3百万瓩。这代表尖峰时段能源消耗量的约10%。

Oleksandr Kharchenko, head of the Kyiv-based Energy Research Center, said Monday that the power grid would not be fully repaired for at least two years.

位于基辅的能源研究中心主任哈成科周一表示，电网至少2年无法完全修复。

“We understand that for the next two years, we need to be prepared for daily outages as a norm, not as a critical situation for us,” Kharchenko said. “Honestly, all we can do is get used to this as the normal state of affairs.”

哈成科说，「我们了解，接下来2年，我们要准备好让日常停电成为常态，而非危急情况。老实说，我们能做的就是习惯这样，当作正常情况」。

文／Constant Méheut and Oleksandra Mykolyshyn　译／周辰阳