北京一处购物中心入口处戴着口罩的民众,摄于本周一。北京一处购物中心入口处戴着口罩的民众,摄于本周一。 Thomas Peter/Reuters

Even before concerns about the new Omicron variant arose, China had refused calls to loosen its border restrictions, which are among the strictest in the world.

早在对新冠病毒新变种奥密克戎毒株的担忧出现之前,中国就一直拒绝外界对其放松世界上最严格的边境限制的呼吁。

Now Chinese researchers are offering data to support the government’s decision to maintain its extreme “zero Covid” strategy.

现在,中国研究人员正在拿出数据,支持政府坚持极端“清零”战略的决定。

A recent study published on the country’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention website found that China could face more than 630,000 coronavirus cases a day if it dropped its zero-tolerance prevention measures and lifted curbs on travel, in the way that some Western countries have.

中国疾病预防控制中心网站最近发表的一项研究发现,如果中国像一些西方国家那样,放弃对病毒“零容忍”的预防措施,取消旅行限制,每日新增病例数可能会超过63万例。

That would be more than five times as many as the total number of cases reported in China, which has a population of 1.4 billion, in the years since the virus first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, according to a New York Times database. Such an outbreak would put a huge strain on the country’s resources, including its hospital system, the said the report, which was published before the World Health Organization labeled Omicron a “variant of concern.”.

根据《纽约时报》的一个数据库,这会比自新冠病毒在中国武汉首次出现以来,这个有14亿人口的国家通报的累计确诊病例数高出五倍还多。这项研究是世界卫生组织把奥密克戎称为“令人担忧的变异株”之前发表的,报告描述的疫情将给中国带来巨大的资源压力,包括医疗系统在内。

The authors of the report, who are scholars at Peking University in Beijing, wrote that the findings “raised a clear warning” that the country was not ready to open up.

这篇报告的作者来自北京大学,作者写道,这些发现对中国还没有做好开放的准备“发出了明确警告”。

“More efficient vaccinations or more specific treatment, preferably the combination of both, are needed before entry-exit quarantine measures and other Covid-19 response strategies in China can be safely lifted,” they wrote.

“在中国安全地取消出入境检疫措施和其他应对新冠病毒的策略之前,需要有更有效的疫苗或更具体的治疗,最好是将两者结合起来,”文章作者写道。

While China has vaccinated more than 75 percent of its population, questions have been raised about the efficacy of the country’s homegrown vaccines.

虽然中国已为75%以上的人口接种了新冠疫苗,但人们对国产疫苗的有效性存在疑问

The Beijing government has staked much of its political legitimacy on controlling the virus better than other countries. The strategy, so far, has worked: China has reported fewer than 5,000 deaths since the pandemic began and has managed to quickly tame sporadic outbreaks through severe, and sometimes impractical, measures. On Monday, China reported just 21 locally transmitted cases, most of which were reported in the northern region of Inner Mongolia.

中国政府将其政治合法性的相当大部分押在能比其他国家更好地控制新冠病毒上。迄今为止,“清零”政策取得了成效:自新冠疫情开始以来,中国通报的累计死亡病例不到5000例,并通过严格的、有时影响生活的措施,成功地将疫情的零星暴发迅速控制住。中国本周一通报的本土新确诊病例只有21例,其中大多数发生在内蒙古北部地区。

While some critics have warned that China’s approach could be unsustainable and counterproductive, growing concerns about the new Omicron variant now make it even more unlikely that Beijing will ease its restrictions, which include at least two weeks of mandatory quarantine for visitors as well as snap lockdowns and mass testing campaigns in areas where the virus is detected.

尽管一些批评人士警告,中国的做法也许不可持续,而且可能会产生反作用,但对奥密克戎新变异株日益增长的担忧,让中国政府放松限制的可能性变得更小。中国目前的做法包括对入境者进行至少两周的强制隔离,对发现病毒的地区进行紧急封锁和大规模病毒检测。

Dr. Zhang Wenhong, one of China’s top infectious disease experts, said on Sunday that the country’s comprehensive approach to fighting the virus made it well placed to confront the evolving threat.

中国最重要的传染病专家之一张文宏医生周日说,中国全面抗击病毒的做法使其处于有利地位,得以应对不断变化的威胁。

“If we can cope with the Delta variant, we can also cope with Omicron,” Dr. Zhang wrote on Weibo, a popular Chinese social media platform.

“我们可以应对德尔塔,也能应对奥密克戎,”张文宏新浪微博上写道

Amy Chang Chien在台湾为《纽约时报》报道中国大陆和台湾新闻。欢迎在Twitter上关注她 @amy_changchien

Amy Qin是《纽约时报》国际记者,负责报道中国文化、政治和社会之间的交汇。欢迎在Twitter上关注她:@amyyqin

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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